2012 Bowman Signature Andrew Luck Refractor Autograph #BCRA-AL

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How lucky do Colts fans have it? After a really bad season in 2011 because Peyton Manning was hurt, they get the #1 pick and land a new QB!! Sure, they probably are still rebuilding, but considering Andy Dalton (and others) turned a rather horrible Bengals team into a playoff participant - you never know what Andrew Luck might mean to the Indianapolis Colts this season.

Speaking of how much Andrew Luck means to someone, collectors are certainly already banking on this young man to be the next Peyton Manning. While his autographs come in an era that makes it difficult to compare to Peyton's 1998 Contenders Auto, the price people are willing to pay early on for his autographs on eBay is pretty high for Andrew Luck because of all the hype he got coming out of Stanford.

While the slew of 2012 Football Card releases have yet to start rolling out, one of the earliest sets of the year is 2012 Bowman Signature Football. Within this set, you'll find a few different Andrew Luck autographs. During the 1st month of sales - I found the best price data on eBay was for the refractor autograph #BCRA-AL pictured to the right. I wanted to look at one of Andrew Luck's 1st major releases and see how the price went up/down just based purely on collectors supply/demand - as Luck has only played with the team on the practice field.

2012 Bowman Signature Andrew Luck Autograph Refractor Card
You'll notice on the graph below that the price has faded a bit during the first month, and has fluctuated, so there were certainly good times to buy/sell this card. My advice going forward on this card will be one of caution for buyers because I just recently did a piece where I covered Bryce Harper's Bowman Autograph card, and found the price continued to decline as more & more sets came out with his autographs. The same thing could happen to Andrew Luck, as Panini, Topps, and Upper Deck will be rolling out sets all season long with Luck's autograph. Because of this, even if Andrew Luck plays really well in 2012, I don't see much up-side with this card. You can also compare what Cam Newton's autograph RC sell on eBay to Luck's to get a base comparison for what collectors will pay for a #1 pick rookie QB who has an amazing season. Either way, it's a nice card, but a very risky buy at the current price levels because he hasn't played yet & more collectible sports card releases are coming.
2012 Bowman Signature Andrew Luck Refractor Autograph Price Graph
  • 5/31 $304.99
  • 6/3 $305
  • 6/4 $275.55
  • 6/5 $305
  • 6/5 $258
  • 6/5 $212.50
  • 6/11 $246.50
  • 6/14 $300
  • 6/15 $233.50
  • 6/17 $256
  • 6/17 $255

 

 

Completed Auctions on eBay for the first few weeks of release.

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