January 31, 2011
Gary Brown was a 1st round draft pick of the San Francisco Giants in 2010 (Pick #24) 2011 will be his first full season of Minor League Baseball – so he is a prospect many people will be keeping an eye on in the Giants organization. We have seen recently that the Giants are willing to move prospects up the ranks quicker than in years past (see Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey and a World Championship Ring) so we expect them to continue that trend in future years if the MLB team needs them. Gary Brown is a long shot to make the MLB this season, but with how much Brandon Belt cards have gone up (despite not playing in the MLB) its worth taking a shot on some of these prospects before they get the full spotlight of scouts on them.
2010 Bowman Sterling Baseball has a Gary Brown Autograph, however it is a sticker autograph, and despite this being a redemption card, I was willing to wait because its an on-card signature. I have also seen his Refractor and other cards already selling online – so I’m guessing that Gary Brown has already signed these cards and the redemption should come back pretty quickly.
I wanted to make sure I got this card at the best possible price because there were usually 2-3 auctions ending per day, so there was never any reason to over pay. Baseball is also in the off-season, so Gary Brown can’t do too much to make his cards to up/down at the moment. I decided to track about a dozen auctions before I made a bid on one myself. My rule for counting a final price was:
#1 Had to be a redemption card
#2 Had to be an auction – started at a reasonable price > $4.00
#3 Shipping had to be less than $3
#4 The seller had to have reasonable feedback
#5 Price was calculated as if you bought just that 1 card from the seller
(no shipping discount)
Card On eBay: 2010 Bowman Chrome Draft Gary Brown Auto Redemption
Low Price: $6.25
High Price: $10.07
(16 Auctions): $8.25
I monitored the sales and plotted them in a graph using Microsoft Excel, I found that with the first dozen sales, people would pay around $7.00 – $8.00 pretty regularly, with some auctions ending closer to $9-$10. By simply tracking the results and looking at the graph it let me bid on auctions comfortably knowing I should never pay over $8.00 total for this card. I ended up getting the card for $7.50 total, which is lower than the average price paid covering these 16 completed listings. I actually put in the bid the day before the auction closed … instead of waiting for the last seconds because I knew my price. Also, anyone placing a bid on that card is now getting into the higher range for which that card has been selling for. I found that people are less willing to bid on these cards because the price is already ‘right’ and they can find other auctions on eBay that are currently ‘lower’ in price. This does not apply to all cards/auctions – but I found that bidding the day before was better than waiting to the last second.