Show #104 NFL Football Buy – Sell – Hold Edition + Some News

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Before we dip into the Buy – Sell – Hold, we run down some topics I saw come across this week that were interesting.

  • Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is getting his own statue outside the Staples Center
  • Shaquille O’Neal and Jamal Wilkes are getting jerseys retired in Los Angeles
  • The Industry Summit 2013 is March 17 – 20th (Start Planning Now)
  • Briefly touch on COA’s or Certificates of Authenticity or “Paperwork”

Joe Flacco

2011 was a rough year statistically for Joe:

Career Lows

  • QB Rating
  • Completion Percentage
  • TD’s

He also fumbled more while being sacked less than years prior.

With no real plan to replace him, his job is safe during the season. However, the Ravens could possibly want to go in a different direction in Ray Lewis and other key members of the team retire or change teams in the coming years. The team may also rely on the run more, which might mute Flacco’s ability to put up big time numbers. His 2008 rookie cards have fallen over the last few years as collectors pay more for Cam Newton and other young un-proven QB’s.

Rating: HOLD

I don’t see his values dropping much further – and the Ravens should be competitive in a tough division. He doesn’t need to put up big numbers for the team to win, and if the Ravens win, his cards should rise.

Sam Bradford

2011 NFL QB Ranks*

  • QB Rating: 29th
  • Passing Yards: 27th
  • Completion Percentage: 31st

* Played In Only 10 Games But Still Pretty Bad

After stealing lots of the hobby spotlight from Tim Tebow in 2010, they traded places in 2011 with Bradford putting up fairly poor numbers across the board. Not that Tebow’s numbers were much better, but Bradford wasn’t winning nationally televised playoff games against a popular NFL team. Bradford’s card values have fallen, and they have more room to fall. I don’t follow college football, but I believe the wrap on Bradford is that he can’t stay healthy … and that looks to be the same in the NFL.

Rating: SELL

I don’t see the Rams turning things around before they get worse. That usually means bad things for QB’s and head coaches as they tend to get blamed when things go bad. The team will have a long rope with him, but without any real talent at WR, RB and other key positions, Bradford will probably continue to struggle in 2012.

Alex Smith

2011 NFL QB Ranks

  • QB Rating: 9th
  • Passing Yards: 19th
  • Completion Percentage: 11th

Proved to most people last season that at worst he’s an average NFL QB. His stats actually place him into the above average category, especially for a run-first team. Smith does play in one of the weakest divisions in the NFL, and should benefit again because of that. The addition of Randy Moss and other weapons via the draft might continue to help Alex Smith succeed in 2012.

Rating: SELL

Collectors waited a long time for Alex Smith to finally play well that only die-hard 49ers fans are the ones buying cards at the moment. It will be difficult for the 49ers to repeat the success they had last season (NFC Championship) and the 49ers are still going to stick to the run. All those factors add up to a sell rating because his cards have been sold off for years, but the upside isn’t high enough to buy right now. Word on the street is that all the QB’s in camp have looked good – so if Smith is not cutting it, he will get pulled.

Ben Tate

2011 Numbers

  • 942 Rushing Yards In 15 Games
    (8 Games He Had >10 Carries)
  • 4 100+ Yard Rushing Games
  • 4 TD’s and 4 Fumbles

Rating: BUY

Not too many RB’s in the NFL are buy’s and I actually had a sell on Ben Tate after the season. There are rumors other teams want his services with Arian Foster already in place for Houston. That might give his cards another boost, but only at times looked like a dominant NFL rusher last season. I still think he will get time in 2012, either when Foster gets injured – or just on certain plays. His cards have come down in value since last season, making them more in the value category than over-priced like they were at times in 2011.

Cedric Benson

Key Facts:

  • 3 Straight 1,000 Yard Seasons With Cincinnati
  • Always In Good Shape
  • Wants The Ball

Rating: BUY

Green Bay is the one team where Cedric Benson can be a 1,000 yard rusher and his cards have the potential to sky-rocket if the Packers make it deep in the playoffs (as many pundits are predicting). He had some fumbling problems and issues with splitting carries in Cincinnati – but with no one really in place in Green Bay, he should put up solid numbers for one of the leagues most popular teams. If the Pack make the Super Bowl, his cards should be much higher than they are today.

Tim Tebow

Key Facts:

  • Has A Loyal Fan Base
  • Will Get Playing Time
  • One Of The Most Interesting Athletes In the NFL

Rating: HOLD

You can’t go wrong holding Tebow cards. Sure his popularity will ware off as time goes on, but the fans that follow him going back to his Florida Gators days will never forget him. His autographs will always have some kind of value. He has the potential to become the starter in New York – and Rex Ryan doesn’t care how you win, so I fully expect Tebow to play. His cards are already pretty valuable – so you’re not exactly buying this stuff cheap, however selling now my limit some upside you might get if he takes the Jets on a playoff run.


Andrew Luck – Could be a hobby golden boy, or the next Carson Palmer – we’ll see
Brandon Weeden – An “older” rookie might limit his upside
David Wilson – Heard on radio NY has been impressed with his pre-season
Doug Martin – I’m rooting for this guy – and it seems like he’s the guy in Tampa
Isaiah Pead – Steven Jackson is getting to that ‘age’
Mohamed Sanu – The team cut Jordan Shipley because Sanu might be better
Robert Griffin III – His agent already has him in Subway and Gatorade ads (among others) = Fans
Russell Wilson – All of a sudden is the Seahawks starter – he probably will boom or bust now
Ryan Tannehill – Fans really seem to like this guy, his cards are selling well

– Listen To Show #104 Below –

The Sports Card Show


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