October 1, 2010
During the NFL off-season many experts and fantasy football owners thought that Shonn Greene, NY Jets running back, would have a good season. The Jets signed veteran RB LaDanian Tomlinson – and he has looked like the ‘old’ LT and has taken the starting job from young Shonn Greene. This has fantasy owners ‘dropping’ him from lineups and rosters – and others thinking that this young RB might be not be a valuable player for the Jets later in the season.
The bottom line is that Shonn Greene really didn’t play much until late into 2009 because the Jets had Thomas Jones still providing production from the backfield. Greene’s late season performance including some nice playoff games were partly due to the fact that he had fresh legs and was running hard. Seems like a similar situation might play out over the course of the 2010 NFL season as well. LT has been getting the bulk of the carries – but who really thinks he will be as strong in week 14 as LT seems now? Our guess is that Tomlinson wears down over the course of the season (or possibly gets injured) and Shonn Greene will emerge again as the feature back in the NY Jets offense.
If/When Shonn Greene gets back into the lineup – he will again have the advantage of being fresh when defenses are worn down late in the season. If this happens – we expect Shonn Greene 2009 SP Authentic Auto/Patch RC Cards to rise off the fairly low levels they are now. The Jets look like they are going to be in the playoff hunt and they get lots of national TV press and coverage. This all helps players values if they start playing better.
We took a look at 5 recently completed auctions from September 21 – October 1 2010. These were more the 1 color or 2 color patch variations. The more premium or prime patch pieces sell for 1.5 – 2x+ the less colorful patches.
Card on eBay: 2009 SP Authentic Shonn Green Auto/Patch RC
Current Avg. Price: $36.21 (5 Auctions)
Our Prediction: ~ 15% (Or Around $41.00 By December 1st)
RESULTS: Fail – these actually went down just a bit considering Shonn Greene has never got a full load this season. The Jets are still a very hot team, and its possible he makes an impact in the Playoffs. I would consider him a risky buy (with upside) because of the Playoff & possible Super Bowl impact. The multi-color variations and logo versions still sell for 1.5 – 2x ++ the more plain jerseys.